The aluminum alloy market is supported by consumption resilience, with price fluctuations narrowing. [SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy]

SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment on 11.27

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2601 contract opened at 20,780 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 20,845 yuan/mt, a low of 20,770 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,805 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt or 0.24% from the previous close. Trading volume was 2,289, and open interest was 6,029. The K-value was 44.39, D-value 38.78, and J-value 55.61. The J-line crossed above the K/D lines, indicating a short-term rebound signal. The value of 99.41 is in the neutral range, with moderate momentum support. Both trading volume and open interest declined simultaneously, indicating reduced capital participation and cautious market sentiment.

Basis Daily Report: According to SMM data, on November 26, the SMM ADC12 spot price showed a theoretical premium of 660 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2601) at 10:15.

Warrant Daily Report: SHFE data showed that on November 26, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 62,985 mt, an increase of 90 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 mt, unchanged from the previous day; Guangdong's total registered volume was 20,302 mt, an increase of 121 mt; Jiangsu's total registered volume was 10,969 mt, a decrease of 31 mt; Zhejiang's total registered volume was 20,529 mt, unchanged; Chongqing's total registered volume was 6,308 mt, unchanged; Sichuan's total registered volume was 120 mt, unchanged.

Aluminum Scrap: The spot price of primary aluminum edged down on Wednesday compared to the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 21,400 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market followed the decline collectively. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of 16,000-16,500 yuan/mt (tax excluded), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted in the range of 18,000-18,500 yuan/mt (tax excluded). The price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 2,434 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and bare bright aluminum wire in Jiangsu was 867.5 yuan/mt. The market is expected to continue the high-level tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. It is recommended to closely track the price trend of primary aluminum and the procurement strategy adjustments of downstream enterprises.

Silicon Metal: On November 26, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 silicon metal in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. Silicon prices held steady in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Northwest China, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai.

Overseas Market: The current overseas ADC12 quotation range remained at $2,600-2,630/mt. The immediate import loss widened to around 500 yuan/mt, and the import arbitrage window remained closed.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 49,687 mt on November 26, a decrease of 217 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: Spot side, the SMM A00 aluminum spot price decreased by 40 yuan/mt to 21,400 yuan/mt on Wednesday compared to the previous trading day, while the ADC12 price held steady at 21,350 yuan/mt. Aluminum price fluctuations narrowed this week, and overall market trading activity remained stable. Supported by demand for pushing annual targets at year-end and the order front-loading effect from policy adjustments, secondary aluminum market demand maintained resilience. Coupled with persistently high raw material costs, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued their firm trend and were expected to maintain a rangebound fluctuation in the short term.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not intended as decision-making advice.]